UK in danger from coalition of chaos
BE in no doubt that the Tory rebels are driven wholly by principle — the time-honoured political principle of self-preservation at all costs.
Their calculation is straightforward — they now view Boris Johnson, once a vote-winner, asweapons-grade electoral hemlock, threatening their majorities.
But the civil war now convulsing the party is also subject to the law of unintended consequences — and the Nationalists could be the beneficiaries.
Imagine the nightmarescenario at the time of the next General Election, whenever it might be, with Sir Keir Starmer offering an olive branch to the SNP.
There would be much talk of progressive partnerships, working together to lock the Tories out of power, and laying down arms for the greater good.
The Labour leader, assuming he survives this tumultuous period given his own vulnerability on alleged lockdown breaches, is likely to miss out on a majority, so would depend on the support of the Lib Dems to form a government.
There’s no way the Lib Dems would reject Sir Keir’s invitation — seeing it as a path back to power, or some power, after a lengthy spell in the doldrums.
Sir Keir would have a simple proposition for Nicola Sturgeon: join our pact, or stay out in the cold — but if you shun this opportunity, beware the fallout.
Turning their backs on the Starmer rainbow grouping of erstwhile sworn enemies would see the separatists damned as facilitators of Tory rule.
Their priority would be avoiding a repeat of 1979, when 11 of its MPs voted with the Tories to bring down the Labour Government — forcing the election which Margaret Thatcher won.
TheSNP’s own grassroots would revoltif the leadership refused to climb on board with Sir Keir– and they are already in restive mood, given that the longed-for referendum is nowhere close to fruition.
The stakes would be high for Miss Sturgeon, and in these circumstances it’s highly probable that she would willingly play a role in the new Starmer regime.
It is true that Sir Keir could hold most of the cards in this relationship — and the power dynamic might be tilted heavily in his favour.
He may not have to woo the Nationalists at all, opting instead to guilt-trip them into supporting his rag-tag crew — a kind of high-level blackmail.
Once they were in the fold, think of the havoc the SNP would wreak, and the demands they would make for their continued backing.
But if the pressure tactics didn’t pan outfor Sir Keir, he would have to come up with a fig-leaf for Miss Sturgeon, something she could sell to her power-base.
It’s anyone’s guess what form this would take, but if push came to shove, and he worried that she wouldn’t play ball, or the numbers were tight, it’s conceivable that he might be tempted to offer her the holy grail — a second tilt at an independence vote, with the blessing of the UK Government.
From the SNP’s perspective, that would be infinitely preferable to the uncertain course it’scurrently plotting — ploughing itsown furrow without Westminster consent, and ending up in court.
It is a plan that will end in failure, and will probably kill off the Sturgeon era, an outcome that could be prevented by the Starmer alliance, bringing the only goal the separatists have ever cared about within reach.
After years of prevarication, flip-flops and U-turns, Labour simply can’t be trusted on the Union — that much is undeniable — and no Unionist can seriously believe that Sir Keir means it when he says he backs it unequivocally.
The bloodbath now engulfing the Conservatives is a self-inflicted wound that could lead us into another constitutional fever dream.
And make no mistake — this would be the ultimate coalition of chaos, a cynical band of opportunists consisting of Left-wing ideologues, Remainers and hard-core nationalists, who would promise the Earth — and deliver utter carnage.
The ramshackle Starmer government — a cut-and-shut administration ofthe desperate and the doomed — would drag the United Kingdom to the brink of the abyss.
In Scotland, Anas Sarwar, whose approval ratings are in the ascendant, would be rendered impotent — how could he go to war with the First Minister, when she’s in cahoots with his own boss in London?
The SNP would hold the balance of power — and therefore the future of Britain — in their hands as part of a disparate bunch bound together by little more than a visceral loathing of the Tories.
For the Scottish Tories, there would be profound repercussions — with the party out of power in London, they would be a marginalised force north of the Border, a diminished voice at a moment when the Union would be in grave peril.
There’s also a risk for Miss Sturgeon that without the Tory Governmentas convenient scapegoats for herownlong record of failure, independence would become an even tougher sell.
But she would secure her overriding objective — another toxic referendum, regardless of the paralysis that it would create.
Wounds that had barely begun to heal after the psychodrama of 2014 would be reopened — and the economy, already weakened after 15 years of SNP neglect and mismanagement, would suffer yet more massive damage.
The rebels have opened a Pandora’s Box — but the problem with eliminating one perceived bogeyman is that another one can quickly take its place.
*This column appeared in the Scottish Daily Mail on June 7, 2022.
*Follow me on Twitter: @GrahamGGrant
