New year, no change from SNP politics of secrecy and failure

IT was a year that was almost beyond imagination – and most of us were glad to say goodbye to 2020.

But 2021 could prove just as tumultuous as the global fight to turn the tide against Covid goes on.

Vaccinations are under way but it remains to be seen how quickly they will break the cycle of lockdown.

And whether government will be able to rise to the logistical challenge of rolling out the coronavirus jabs rapidly is perhaps the greatest variable.

The margin for error is small, the stakes are high, and the SNP’s record is poor when it comes to granular detail – and getting the job done.

Within weeks, we’ll also be pitched into full-scale election fever – a prospect that will fill many with a sense of trepidation if not downright dread.

For the SNP, it’s important to maintain a sense of momentum after a series of polls showing a majority in favour of independence.

Certainly, no one presents a real threat to Nicola Sturgeon’s incumbency on the opposition benches, and there’s little doubt the Nationalists’ popularity has grown during the pandemic.

The fact that their boasts about having beaten Covid into submission were frankly ludicrous has been overshadowed by the frequently chaotic handling of the crisis by Boris Johnson.

But it is likely to be the nastiest campaign since the referendum in 2014, which unleashed divisive forces that have shaped and indeed poisoned our political discourse ever since.

An SNP majority will make yet another call for an independence vote inevitable, and Mr Johnson, who has suggested 2055 as the date for a second referendum, may find the pressure to cave in to its demands intolerable – calculating that holding firm carries its own risks.

Blocking it could see support for separatism rising still further, as the Nationalists are past masters when it comes to stoking constitutional tension.

Unionists will fervently hope he doesn’t buckle, but the clearest path to salvaging the UK lies in depriving Miss Sturgeon’s party of a majority.

Doubtless the SNP wouldn’t just forget about independence, but its claim to have any kind of democratic mandate for another referendum would lie in tatters.

It’s within the grasp of the Tories to achieve this goal by relentlessly focusing on the myriad faults and shortcomings of the SNP after nearly 14 years in office.

Eclipsed by Covid, they cover every area of domestic policy from education to health to a record number of drug deaths – the highest fatality rate in Europe.

The progress of the vaccine drive could well become an election issue – it’s an understatement to say it’s the nation’s top priority.

As for Brexit, we may start to see the beginnings of an economic boost afforded by EU withdrawal in relatively short order, now that the gruelling negotiations are finally over.

It will become harder for the SNP to speak out against Brexit, though it will continue to do so.

But it’s worth bearing in mind that historically it was a Eurosceptic party, and that it has changed its mind before on big issues (including devolution).

Politically, a pro-Brexit pivot would be tricky for Miss Sturgeon to sustain, though many of her core voters are veteran Brexiteers.

The central message of getting us back into the EU, handing back hard-won powers to Brussels, will be a harder sell on the doorstep.

Most voters will be interested only in getting back to normality, hanging onto their jobs (or finding one), and trying to pay the mortgage.

We can also expect a host of inquiries this year: it’s a growth industry, and it’s in peak condition.

One of the most important high-profile probes will be the public inquiry into the death in custody of Sheku Bayoh, amid allegations of police brutality.

The Scottish Child Abuse Inquiry, launched in 2015, will turn its attention to claims of historic abuse at top private schools.

The Salmond inquiry is ongoing; so too is the standards probe into the conduct of the First Minister over her knowledge and reporting of the allegations against her former mentor.

That could expand further to investigate whether she misled parliament and if it were to find that she did, Miss Sturgeon could face calls to quit.

(Sturgeon: could she face calls to quit?)

MSPs’ inquiry into the Salmond scandal is also likely to hear soon from Alex Salmond himself, and the First Minister – testimony that could prove seismic in its impact.

And don’t forget the Rangers fraud debacle – out of court settlements costing millions of pounds have been agreed over claims of wrongful arrest and malicious prosecution.

Lord Advocate James Wolffe QC is set to make a public apology at Holyrood – a seminal moment in Scottish political and legal history.

Miss Sturgeon has publicly committed to an inquiry into what went wrong, though when it will happen and what form it will take haven’t been decided.

It’s a reasonably safe bet that there will be no immediate rush to set up the promised inquiry into the hundreds of coronavirus deaths in care homes.

Thousands of patients were sent to homes without having been tested for Covid during the first wave, while more than 100 were discharged to residential care despite having the virus.

The Scottish Government insists now isn’t the time for a care homes inquiry, while the battle to contain the virus is still going on.

Then there’s the major inquiry into Scotland’s superhospital, the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital in Glasgow, after patient deaths were linked to contaminated tapwater – and the delayed opening of the Royal Hospital for Children and Young People in Edinburgh.

Health Secretary Jeane Freeman is preparing to quit at the election, despite supposedly masterminding the Covid vaccine drive – though if she wasn’t leaving of her own accord, it’s possible that she would have been sacked.

Possible rather than likely – because the SNP tends to cling onto its under-performers for as long as it possibly can: you have to be exceptionally poor, like hapless former Public Health Minister Joe FitzPatrick, before you’re shown the door, or encouraged to step down.

Either way, the SNP’s knack for cack-handed governance means the inquiry conveyor belt will be kept busy.

They’re a convenient way to kick difficult problems into the long grass, but in time they will expose institutional failings on a grand scale.

It’s unlikely, however, that this will happen in time for the election – as some of these inquiries will take years to complete.

And we don’t even know how much cash most of the esteemed figures running them are raking in for all their hard work – because the government won’t tell us.

Whatever they decide, those who make the worst mistakes tend to hang onto the highest office, or are richly rewarded – just look at disgraced Finance Secretary Derek Mackay, cashing in on his expenses despite not being seen at Holyrood since he lost his Cabinet seat.

In uncertain times, there are some things we can bank on – not least an intensification of constitutional warfare, and the continuing evasion, secrecy and incompetence of the SNP.

*This column appeared in the Scottish Daily Mail on January 5, 2021.